1. Finance, Public Goods, and Migration
I show that shocks to the supply of municipal credit affect both the quantity and quality of local public goods provision, and through this channel, resident migration. I use a difference-in-differences approach based on a regulation that unintendedly decreased bank investment in municipal bonds. Following the credit shock, municipalities cut spending, especially infrastructure investment. A dollar reduction in bond issuance reduces infrastructure investment by 78 cents. Increased water contamination and longer power outages suggest that public service quality deteriorates. Residents, especially those with higher income, "vote with their feet" and leave communities with deteriorating public goods.
2. Launching with a Parachute: The Gig Economy and New Business Formation, with John Barrios and Yael Hochberg, NBER Working Paper No. 27183
The introduction of the gig economy creates opportunities for would-be entrepreneurs to supplement their income in downside states of the world and provides insurance in the form of an income fallback in the event of failure. We utilize the arrival of the on-demand, platform-enabled gig economy in the form of the staggered rollout of ridehailing in U.S. cities to examine the effect of the gig economy on new business formation. The introduction of gig opportunities is associated with an increase of ~5% in new business registrations and a correspondingly-sized increase in small business lending to newly registered businesses. Internet searches for entrepreneurship-related keywords increase ~7%. Both the income supplement and insurance channels are empirically supported: the increase in entry is larger in regions with lower average income, higher credit constraints, and higher ex-ante economic uncertainty regarding future wage levels and wage growth.
3. Deputization, with Bruce Carlin and Tarik Umar, NBER Working Paper No. 27225
Deputization is a permissive policy that asks agents to help screen for dangerous activities without providing explicit incentives. We study recent laws that deputized financial professionals to help fight elder financial abuse. We show deputization led to a 4%-6% decrease in suspected cases and a 4.5% drop in personal bankruptcies. Women, minorities, and unmarried people benefited more. Deep personal relationships with deputies were important and mattered most in isolated communities. Social networks were protective in their own right, but were a substitute for personal client relationships. Egoistic incentives, legal concerns, a desire for publicity, and moral imperatives were less important.
4. Aging and Public Financing Costs: Evidence from U.S. Municipal Bond Markets, with Alex Butler
We examine the impact of population aging on municipal access to credit. A one standard deviation increase in a state’s population age leads to a 23 basis point increase in municipal bond issue spread. Three mechanisms drive this effect: income tax revenue, healthcare liabilities, and pension underfunding. Constitutional pension protections and securities with lower credit quality or longer maturity exacerbate the effect. To control for endogenous migration and mortality patterns, we exploit variation from historical state fertility trends. Our findings highlight the challenges municipalities face to cope with systemic demographic transition.
5. The Cost of Convenience: Ridehailing and Traffic Fatalities, with John Barrios and Yael Hochberg, NBER Working Paper No. 26783
We examine the effect of the introduction of ridehailing in U.S. cities on fatal traffic accidents. The arrival of ridehailing is associated with an increase of approximately 3% in the number of fatalities and fatal accidents, for both vehicle occupants and pedestrians. The effects persist when controlling for proxies for smartphone adoption patterns. Consistent with ridehailing increasing congestion and road usage, we find that introduction is associated with an increase in arterial vehicle miles traveled, excess gas consumption, and annual hours of delay in traffic. On the extensive margin, ridehailing’s arrival is also associated with an increase in new car registrations. These effects are higher in cities with prior higher use of public transportation and carpools, consistent with a substitution effect, and in larger cities. These effects persist over time. Back-of-the-envelope estimates of the annual cost in human lives range from $5.33B to $13.24B.
- Midwest Finance Association 2020, Urban Economics Association 2020, Office of Financial Research PhD Symposium 2020
- Distinguished Student Paper Award, Eastern Finance Association 2020
I show that shocks to the supply of municipal credit affect both the quantity and quality of local public goods provision, and through this channel, resident migration. I use a difference-in-differences approach based on a regulation that unintendedly decreased bank investment in municipal bonds. Following the credit shock, municipalities cut spending, especially infrastructure investment. A dollar reduction in bond issuance reduces infrastructure investment by 78 cents. Increased water contamination and longer power outages suggest that public service quality deteriorates. Residents, especially those with higher income, "vote with their feet" and leave communities with deteriorating public goods.
2. Launching with a Parachute: The Gig Economy and New Business Formation, with John Barrios and Yael Hochberg, NBER Working Paper No. 27183
- R&R, Journal of Financial Economics
- NBER Summer Institute Entrepreneurship Meeting 2020*, Yale University*
The introduction of the gig economy creates opportunities for would-be entrepreneurs to supplement their income in downside states of the world and provides insurance in the form of an income fallback in the event of failure. We utilize the arrival of the on-demand, platform-enabled gig economy in the form of the staggered rollout of ridehailing in U.S. cities to examine the effect of the gig economy on new business formation. The introduction of gig opportunities is associated with an increase of ~5% in new business registrations and a correspondingly-sized increase in small business lending to newly registered businesses. Internet searches for entrepreneurship-related keywords increase ~7%. Both the income supplement and insurance channels are empirically supported: the increase in entry is larger in regions with lower average income, higher credit constraints, and higher ex-ante economic uncertainty regarding future wage levels and wage growth.
3. Deputization, with Bruce Carlin and Tarik Umar, NBER Working Paper No. 27225
- American Economic Association 2021, Midwest Finance Association 2021, Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2020, China International Risk Forum 2020, Econometric Research in Finance Workshop 2020, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)*
Deputization is a permissive policy that asks agents to help screen for dangerous activities without providing explicit incentives. We study recent laws that deputized financial professionals to help fight elder financial abuse. We show deputization led to a 4%-6% decrease in suspected cases and a 4.5% drop in personal bankruptcies. Women, minorities, and unmarried people benefited more. Deep personal relationships with deputies were important and mattered most in isolated communities. Social networks were protective in their own right, but were a substitute for personal client relationships. Egoistic incentives, legal concerns, a desire for publicity, and moral imperatives were less important.
4. Aging and Public Financing Costs: Evidence from U.S. Municipal Bond Markets, with Alex Butler
- Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2020, Financial Management Association 2019, Tulane University*, American University*
- Best Paper Award, Semi-finalist, Financial Management Association 2019
We examine the impact of population aging on municipal access to credit. A one standard deviation increase in a state’s population age leads to a 23 basis point increase in municipal bond issue spread. Three mechanisms drive this effect: income tax revenue, healthcare liabilities, and pension underfunding. Constitutional pension protections and securities with lower credit quality or longer maturity exacerbate the effect. To control for endogenous migration and mortality patterns, we exploit variation from historical state fertility trends. Our findings highlight the challenges municipalities face to cope with systemic demographic transition.
5. The Cost of Convenience: Ridehailing and Traffic Fatalities, with John Barrios and Yael Hochberg, NBER Working Paper No. 26783
- NBER Economics of Digitization Meeting 2019*, NBER Entrepreneurship Meeting 2018*, Carnegie Mellon University*
We examine the effect of the introduction of ridehailing in U.S. cities on fatal traffic accidents. The arrival of ridehailing is associated with an increase of approximately 3% in the number of fatalities and fatal accidents, for both vehicle occupants and pedestrians. The effects persist when controlling for proxies for smartphone adoption patterns. Consistent with ridehailing increasing congestion and road usage, we find that introduction is associated with an increase in arterial vehicle miles traveled, excess gas consumption, and annual hours of delay in traffic. On the extensive margin, ridehailing’s arrival is also associated with an increase in new car registrations. These effects are higher in cities with prior higher use of public transportation and carpools, consistent with a substitution effect, and in larger cities. These effects persist over time. Back-of-the-envelope estimates of the annual cost in human lives range from $5.33B to $13.24B.
